The 49ers Built Their Own Chaos Defense

My verdict, with the asterisk up front: this defense has the potential to be elite, and right now the data says it already is. But I am not passing full judgment yet, because the true starting defense has not played together. I need to see Bosa on the field at the same time as Osa Odighizuwa, Mykel Williams and Keion White, with Greenlaw and Fred Warner behind them, and Marques Sigle, Upton Stout and Malik Mustapha patrolling behind Renardo Green and Deommodore Lenoir. That unit has essentially never taken a snap together. Mykel only debuted last week in Seattle.³ Greenlaw got ejected from the same game.⁴

And it is top 5 anyway. Sit with that.

The stress test people keep demanding has already happened. Week 1, in Melbin, the Rams showed up at full strength with their 13 personnel hammer: Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua, Davante Adams and Kyren Williams.⁵ That is an elite offense by any honest definition, and this defense held it to 7 points in a 27-7 win.⁶ After that came Seattle, where the defense forced 4 turnovers, turned them into 21 points, and closed the game with a stop at the death.⁷⁸

Two young players deserve names here. I am loving Gracen Halton’s play inside, and I was encouraged by Jaden Dugger at linebacker. As an aside, and I will own this one completely: I think Mykel Williams might have the ceiling of a Charles Haley type, and Dugger might have the ceiling of a Julian Peterson type. Holy schnikies, that would be something if it all materializes with Bosa and Osa also on the field.

Now the fight underneath the fight: Morris versus Saleh. Robert Saleh is an amazing leader of men, and I will not pretend otherwise. Give Saleh a defensive line like the one he had in 2019, and a total team defense like the one he had in 2019, and that 2019 defense is better than this one. But that is not the personnel in the building. Morris is doing more with less, and as a protean schemer, a coordinator who reshapes the defense week to week and player to player, Morris is clearly better. For this personnel grouping, Morris is an upgrade. It is not close enough to argue about.

How is he winning? With scheme. Morris is calling simulated pressures right now, manufacturing chaos because the four-man rush is not whole yet. That changes soon. Mykel being back gives this front a genuine size advantage. James Thompson Jr, the undrafted defensive tackle will be back soon and Bosa will also be back.⁹ And when Mykel and Bosa are on the field at the same time, Morris will be able to just show four and drop coverage and still get home, which is the most demoralizing thing a defense can do to a quarterback. Keep the sim pressures in the bag on top of that, and the chaos gets worse for offenses, not better. A defense that can win rushing four, and win lying about rushing four, series to series, at the coordinator’s whim. There is a name for that kind of defense. I have been using it for somebody else’s team all month. It is a McDonalds Defense, and Morris is building one in Santa Clara, but when Morris uses it, we need to supersize the name, Morris will be running a full fledged chaos defense, team health willing.

Credit for the build goes three ways, because that is how it actually happened: John Lynch assembled a roster with this much young defensive talent on it, Raheem Morris is scheming it past its own injury list, and Kyle Shanahan built the program and the complementary structure that lets a defense play this free. The Seattle win was the whole machine in one afternoon: the defense forced the turnovers, Corliss Waitman kept the field position manageable,¹⁰ and when the game needed saving, Brock Purdy went straight at his largest mismatch, Mike Evans, and drove the team down for the tying touchdown and the game-winning field goal.¹¹

So what is left to prove? The calendar has the tests circled. At Dallas on November 15. The Rams again on December 13. At Kansas City on December 27. (We will see about the Eagles offense on January 3rd, right now they look like they’re in a death spiral) Everyone else on the remaining schedule has a pedestrian or bad offense, and frankly, that bodes well for Raheem’s D (pause).

Here is my prediction, and the condition attached to it, in writing. If this team only gets healthier from here, on offense and defense both, playing the complementary football it played in Melbin, this defense finishes the season as Defense 1 in the NFL. And here is what makes me walk it back: another injury gutting. If the pieces to be elite are no longer on the field, the prediction dies with them, and I will say so. Until then, the burden of proof is not on this defense anymore. It is on the next offense that has to solve it.

Route 49, the Essential49ers newsletter, is seven stories every morning, the ones that matter, before the coffee cools. Washington comes to Levi’s on Monday night. Pass this to a friend before then.

Sources (11)

1. Matt Maiocco’s defensive rankings through five games, as reported by Niners Nation in its piece on Raheem Morris’s fit in San Francisco ↩
2. FTN’s Week 5 DVOA: the 49ers are the seventh-best team in DVOA history through five games, at 52.2% ↩
3. Mykel Williams played 23 defensive snaps in his season debut at Seattle; Renardo Green intercepted 2 passes (NBC Sports Bay Area) ↩
4. Greenlaw was ejected in the second quarter at Seattle for headbutting a helmetless Ernest Jones IV; his one-game suspension was upheld on appeal (NBC Sports Bay Area) ↩
5. The Rams’ offense took the field at full strength in the Melbourne opener and was held in check (Rams Wire). “Melbin” is spelled that way throughout this column on purpose; the joke is the point ↩
6. Week 1 in Melbourne: 49ers 27, Rams 7; the defense held the Rams’ offense to 7 points (49ers Communications stats via Yardbarker) ↩
7. The 49ers forced 4 turnovers at Seattle and turned them into 21 points in the 32-29 win; both of Sam Darnold’s interceptions were caught by Renardo Green (Reuters) ↩
8. Seattle’s final drive ended with Cooper Kupp ruled short on fourth down (FOX Sports) ↩
9. Shanahan said James Thompson Jr. and Nick Bosa both “have a chance” to return in Week 6 against Washington; Thompson, an undrafted rookie tackle, hurt his ankle in Week 2 (Nick Wagoner via Niners Wire) ↩
10. Corliss Waitman was named NFC Special Teams Player of the Week after all 5 of his punts at Seattle landed inside the 20 (Niners Wire) ↩
11. Mike Evans at Seattle: 7 catches, 113 yards, a touchdown and the 2-point conversion; Eddy Pineiro’s 44-yard field goal with 1:56 left won it (Reuters) ↩