Check, Call, and ALL IN

In April 2021, I went on Ronbo Sports’ Red and Gold GM show and did a full 49ers mock draft on a livestream. I traded down from the third overall pick, not once but multiple times, hoarded picks like a doomsday prepper, and took Mac Jones at 15 while the chat howled for Trey Lance and Justin Fields. The live chat called them “beautiful tin foil hat trades.” Somebody graded my draft Z. “Madden wouldn’t even take this crap trade scenario,” one viewer wrote. I swore on the air. I talked so fast somebody asked if I had taken a breath yet.

Here is the punchline: the Patriots drafted Mac Jones at 15 in real life, the exact slot I traded down to. The 49ers traded three first-round picks to move up to 3 for Lance. Jones washed out of New England, bounced to Jacksonville, and eventually found his way to San Francisco anyway, where he is now the backup quarterback the 49ers will not trade at any sane price. I got the player and the picks. The real team got the press conference and the dead money.

I came back in 2023 and did it again. Nine trades. The show started calling them “Tony trades.” I traded back one time too many and watched my center target, Juice Scruggs, get drafted while I was still holding the phone. My own words, on the air: “I traded back foolishly here.”

I am telling you all of this so you know exactly where I am standing when I tell you that most of the trade deadline takes flying around 49ers internet right now are nonsense. I have been the guy making fifteen trades on a livestream. I know the disease from the inside.

The 4-0 question

Is this start fool’s gold? No. And the reason is the injury report.

Look at who is missing. The defensive line has been gutted. The wide receiver room is held together with tape. Jake Tonges is out for the season. And the 49ers are 4-0, sitting on top of the NFC, with Brock Purdy playing like an MVP and Kyle Shanahan coaching like the Coach of the Year frontrunner. Nobody with a straight face can watch what this team has done at maybe 70 percent strength and call it a mirage.

Could the schedule have been harder? Sure. But good teams beat the teams in front of them, and this team is playing at 100 percent of what it should be expected to play given who is in street clothes. God willing they get healthier, and not sicker, this is a team that should expect to play deep into January. The ceiling was never the question. The bodies were.

The actual emergency

Now the bad news, and there is no way to pretty it up: the run defense is one of the worst in football. The individual grades are gruesome. C.J. West was grading in the 20s before he went on IR. Osa Odighizuwa graded 31.8 against Denver. When your interior defenders are grading like replacement players, offenses do not need a game plan. They just run duo at you until you prove you can stop it.

The reasons are not mysterious. Alfred Collins looked god awful in the preseason (a 28.2 PFF grade in the preseason opener), and then tore his patellar tendon in practice before the team flew to Melbin. Season over. He never got on the plane and never played in the game.

C.J. West showed up looking like he spent more time at the buffet line than in the weight room, started the first two games, and then landed on injured reserve with a bone chip in his knee ¹. He had surgery and is expected back later in the season, which matters for everything below. Neither of those 2025 picks came close to what was expected, at least not this season.

The injuries kept piling on. Sam Okuayinonu broke his foot before Week 1 and is expected to miss most of the season. And the Chiefs claimed undrafted rookie Bryson Eason off waivers at final cuts after a strong preseason ². Offenses figured it out fast. They run duo straight at this defensive line and the Niners are sitting ducks.

Here is the thing nobody wants to admit about the pass rush conversation. This is the first season I have not felt gaslit by the “pressures matter more than sacks” crowd, and yes, I still want more sacks. Six sacks in four games ³ is not good enough. But I would trade every pressure stat on the board for a defensive line that does not get caved in on third and 2.

The only reason it has not killed them: Purdy. The offense is so prolific that game scripts tilt early, and teams cannot stay married to the run when they are down two scores. That is a hell of a thing to rely on for seventeen games.

But it is a both/and, not an either/or. Nick Bosa is not just a pass rusher; he is an elite run defender too. Mykel Williams is TBD as a pass rusher, but he is a force multiplier, a one-man run-game wrecking crew, and he will make everything Osa does better when they share the field. Now close your eyes and picture it: Bosa, Osa, and Mykel on the field at the same time, with a real nose tackle eating blocks in the middle. Dear lord, let them all be healthy together.

That is the Infinity Gauntlet. One stout run defender, a block-eating nose with some pass rush upside, and this defensive line goes from liability to nightmare.

Who wants whom: three lenses

Every trade deadline column collapses three different conversations into one. Let us separate them.

What the fans want. T.J. Watt in a 49ers jersey, obviously. Jeffery Simmons, who is DT1 in this league as far as I am concerned. Vita Vea coming home. DeForest Buckner coming home too, obviously (the Faithful LOVE retreads). Brian Thomas Jr. running go routes for Purdy. Hey, can I get a pony while we’re at it?!? Fan desire is real information about what the fanbase will tolerate, but it is not a plan. On Simmons: Jeremy Fowler, Adam Schefter, and Dianna Russini all report Tennessee will not move him ⁴, which is exactly why he lives in this paragraph and not in the scenarios below.

What Lynch, Shanahan, and Morris would plausibly want. This is the useful question, and it has three different answers.

John Lynch’s archetype is the Charles Omenihu trade: find a guy another team has not figured out how to unlock, buy low, and let the 49ers’ coaching do the rest. Evaluate, project, steal. But Lynch has also shown he will finagle a blockbuster deal when the stars align, so nothing reasonable is off the table. My personal fantasy, and I know it is a fantasy, is picking the corpse of the Chargers for Derwin James and Khalil Mack. Yeah, right.

Kyle Shanahan wants what he always wants: versatility. A pass-catching tight end with H-back flexibility, somebody who can pass block and make plays, a veteran with plug-and-play readiness. Think Emmanuel Sanders walking in the door and knowing the offense by Sunday. Shanahan does not develop projects midseason. He installs veterans.

Raheem Morris; I honestly do not have a read on yet, and I would rather say that than fake a trade scenario. Raheem coached Jalen Ramsey in Los Angeles, so he knows what elite talent looks like up close. He is a defensive backs coach at heart. My guess: he wants versatility on defense, stout interior run defense with pass rush juice, or an elite corner or safety he can move around like a chess piece. I need more options and better sourcing here before I commit to names.

What the idiots think. Every deadline has its zombie takes, and this one is no exception.

Marvin Harrison Jr. to the 49ers is pure message-board fiction. There is no reporting behind it, Arizona has no reason to move a young receiver on a rookie deal inside the window, and the cap math is ugly. Stop it.

Mac Jones as a trade chip is dead too. Dan Graziano and Jeremy Fowler have both reported the 49ers are not moving him, and it would take major Day 2 compensation to even start the conversation ⁵. Your backup quarterback on a 4-0 team with Super Bowl ambitions is not a chip. He is insurance.

And my own “yeah right” tier: Derwin James and Khalil Mack are not walking through that door together. I said it, I own it, moving on.

The eight scenarios

Alright. Here is the board, with my walk-away price on each. Remember the source: a fan, not a GM. I have the livestream receipts to prove it.

A 2028 first is the ceiling. The 2027 draft is loaded, and I’m not burning a premium pick in a premium class.

1. The Watt all-in

T.J. Watt, 32 by the NFL’s season-age convention, three years and $123 million, $16 million in prorated cap for an acquiring team at the deadline ⁶. The dream. The problem is the bill. My walk-away: a 2028 first-round pick is the absolute ceiling, because the 2027 draft is loaded, as Dieter Kurtenbach keeps saying, and I am not burning a premium pick in a premium class. If Pittsburgh insists on 2027 capital, it is a third plus a day-three 2028 pick, and not a dollar more for the best pure pass rusher of his generation. But remember, this cap bomb would land right when Purdy’s extension math gets real, and T.J. does not fix the run defense.

2. The Homecoming

Vita Vea. The 49ers called about him in August, per Mike Garafolo, after Vea requested a trade out of Tampa. Richard Sherman made the pitch on his podcast this week: if the price isn’t above a third-rounder, you have to make the move. Vea signed a one-year, $30 million extension through 2027 ⁷, so he is not a rental, which complicates everything. My price: a 2027 sixth or equivalent chart value, up to a 2028 fourth. Or the full fan special: my 2027 first for Vea plus a 2027 third, a 2027 fourth, and 2028 sixth and seventh coming back. For: a real nose, a real human being, in the middle of the Infinity Gauntlet. Against: that extension means you are marrying him, and I would rather wait for post-June 1 when the cap hit gets friendlier.

3. The Reunion

DeForest Buckner. Drafted by the 49ers, traded to Indianapolis for the pick that became Javon Kinlaw, and he has been one of the best interior linemen in football ever since. He is 32, in the final year of his deal in Indianapolis ⁸, and a reunion would be the most emotionally satisfying move on this list. And this is on top of the fact that DeFo went to my high school, so I have so much love for the guy, and it would be sweet to have DeFo and Strib together on the team, two guys from Oahu. My price: a 2027 fifth, or similar value in 2028 picks and players. I love DeFo. For: elite interior pass rush from day one, a known commodity, the story writes itself. Against: age, cost, and the fact that Indianapolis has no reason to do San Francisco any favors. No reporter has connected him to a trade; this one is all heart.

4. The Lynch Special

Tuli Tuipulotu. Twenty-four, expiring deal, extension talks stalled with the Chargers, the exact Omenihu shape: a good player his current team has not fully unlocked, available for something reasonable. My ceiling: a 2027 fourth, no higher. Ideal world, it is a pick swap: my 2027 second for Tuipulotu plus a 2027 third, a 2027 fifth, and a 2028 seventh coming back. For: young, extendable, the classic Lynch heist. Against: he is a projection, not a savior, and projections do not fix bottom-of-the-league run defenses by themselves.

5. The Sweat Compromise

Josh Sweat. Adam Schefter named him a trade candidate. Twelve sacks last year, one so far this year, on a four-year, $76.4 million deal with no guaranteed money left beyond this season ⁹. He reportedly wants a new contract, which means you are trading for the right to pay him. My price: a 2027 fifth straight up, or a 2027 sixth with a 2028 sixth coming back. For: premium production without Watt’s cap mushroom cloud. Against: you are buying a contract negotiation, and the 2026 tape is quiet.

6. The Receiver Swing

Brian Thomas Jr. Dan Graziano connected the 49ers as a plausible suitor, the receiver room is in triage, and Mike Evans is on a three-year, $42.4 million deal playing through cracked ribs ¹⁰. I covet this player. My price: a 2027 third, or a 2027 fourth with a 2028 fifth coming back. For: 24 years old, real outside juice, cost-controlled. Against: receiver is not the emergency, the trenches are, and every pick spent here is a pick not spent on the defensive line.

7. The Double-Dip

A’Shawn Robinson, the Buccaneers’ run-stuffing defensive tackle (89.5 PFF overall grade, 88.8 against the run), and Jermaine Johnson, the Titans’ expiring edge with run-defense chops ¹¹. Two trench fixes from two sellers for Day 3 capital instead of one star. Here is my honest answer: I do not want to spend 2027 draft capital on this at all. I would package Tatum Bethune as the player chip and keep every 2027 pick in the building. For: two problems, two sellers, one afternoon. Against: depth is not difference-making, and this team needs difference-makers.

8. Stand Pat

The case is health, not talent. If Mykel Williams is back, and Bosa’s calf heals, and C.J. West and Sam Okuayinonu both make it back, this defensive line is already elite, and Osa was the big offseason swing, acquired from Dallas for a third-round pick ¹², and he is paying off. A trade is a hedge against the training room, not a talent acquisition. For: keep every bullet for the loaded 2027 draft. Against: “if healthy” is doing a lot of work in that sentence, and 0-2 in Super Bowls does not buy patience.

The cap reality

A quick word on money, because fan trades always forget it. Deadline deals cost roughly half the player’s base salary against the cap (the Nov. 10 deadline leaves 9 of 18 weeks, so it is almost exactly 50 percent), which is why expiring contracts like Tuipulotu’s are so attractive and why Watt’s $32 million base is so terrifying. The 2027 draft is the franchise’s lifeline: a loaded class arriving right as the core gets expensive. Every 2027 pick spent now is a cheap young starter you do not have later. That is the “Rams crash” I used to warn about on those livestreams, the picks-for-stars teardown that leaves you old and broke. The Rams traded Jared Verse and three picks for Myles Garrett in June ¹³, so maybe they know something I do not, though Garrett has now landed on IR after knee surgery, LOL. The bill always comes due.

My rule, and I am serious about it: 2027 picks can be spent, but only on a genuine difference maker. And every deal should try to get 2027 picks back on the return, so the war chest stays full.

The verdict

Year ten of the Shanahan regime. Zero and two in Super Bowls. The 2027 draft class is special and the picks should be protected like family heirlooms, but not at the cost of the window that is open right now.

John Lynch should go all in. Not recklessly, not the way I went all in on a PFF mock simulator at 11 p.m. on a Tuesday. Surgically. One big trade and two depth trades. Pay for them with 2028 and 2029 picks and bench players. Keep the 2027 first-rounders unless a true difference maker shakes loose, and if you spend one, get 2027 capital back in the deal.

Do not let trade fever burn the picks. But do not let caution burn the window either.

Check, call, and ALL IN. The guy who made fifteen tin-foil-hat trades on a livestream is telling you: this is the year. Do not let trade fever burn the picks. But do not let caution burn the window either.

Sources (13)

1. ESPN – C.J. West to IR with knee injury ↩
2. Niners Nation – Chiefs claim Bryson Eason off waivers ↩
3. Athlon Sports – 49ers have six sacks through four games ↩
4. Yardbarker – Titans won’t move Jeffery Simmons ↩
5. Niners Wire – 49ers unlikely to trade Mac Jones ↩
6. Over The Cap – T.J. Watt contract details ↩
7. Bucs Report – Vita Vea extension details ↩
8. Spotrac – DeForest Buckner contract ↩
9. Pro Football Rumors – Josh Sweat trade candidate, wants new deal ↩
10. TheScore – Mike Evans rib injury ↩
11. Heavy – A’Shawn Robinson trade interest ↩
12. NBC Sports Bay Area – Osa acquired from Dallas for a 2026 third ↩
13. Pro Football Rumors – Myles Garrett to IR after knee surgery ↩